A poll is a snapshot in time.
And the latest snapshot from the New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena University provides good news for Democrats.
A survey of 1,607 likely voters across the Commonwealth showed Democrats holding leads in three of the four key congressional races across the state, while the fourth race is a statistical deadlock.
Yet, when the margin of sampling error of +/-5.7 to 5.8 percentage points is factored in, the races remain neck-and-neck.
In the 1st Congressional district contest, Bucks County commissioner Bob Harvie has a 48-46% edge over Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick. In PA-07, Democrat Bob Brooks leads incumbent Ryan Mackenzie, 49-44%, while the mayor of Scranton, Paige Cognetti, also has a five-point edge over freshman Republican Rob Bresnahan, 51-46%, in PA-08.
In PA-10, it is a dead heat between Scott Perry and Janelle Stelson at 48-48%.
The survey also showed that Josh Shapiro continues to hold a commanding lead over challenger Stacy Garrity in his reelection bid for governor, 56-39%.
| Poll | Siena October | F&M October | Bravo October | Quinnipiac October | Susquehanna September | F&M August | Siena August |
| Josh Shapiro | 56% | 52% | 58% | 59% | 52% | 50% | 55% |
| Stacy Garrity | 39% | 30% | 28% | 34% | 31% | 25% | 39% |
Democrats 49%, Republicans 46%
Donald Trump (-19)
Strongly Approve 22% | Somewhat Approve 17% | Somewhat Disapprove 7% | Strongly Disapprove 51%
Josh Shapiro (+27)
Strongly Approve 31% | Somewhat Approve 30% | Somewhat Disapprove 15% | Strongly Disapprove 19%
PA-01: Bob Harvie (+6)
Very Favorable 12% | Somewhat Favorable 26% | Somewhat Unfavorable 15% | Very Unfavorable 17%
Have Not Heard of 14% | Don’t Know/Refused 16%
PA-01: Brian Fitzpatrick (0)
Very Favorable 16% | Somewhat Favorable 27% | Somewhat Unfavorable 21% | Very Unfavorable 22%
Have Not Heard of 6% | Don’t Know/Refused 7%
PA-07: Bob Brooks (+4)
Very Favorable 10% | Somewhat Favorable 29% | Somewhat Unfavorable 15% | Very Unfavorable 20%
Have Not Heard of 18% | Don’t Know/Refused 8%
PA-07: Ryan Mackenzie (+1)
Very Favorable 15% | Somewhat Favorable 22% | Somewhat Unfavorable 16% | Very Unfavorable 26%
Have Not Heard of 14% | Don’t Know/Refused 7%
PA-08: Paige Cognetti (+9)
Very Favorable 22% | Somewhat Favorable 23% | Somewhat Unfavorable 16% | Very Unfavorable 20%
Have Not Heard of 13% | Don’t Know/Refused 5%
PA-08: Rob Bresnahan (+2)
Very Favorable 23% | Somewhat Favorable 21% | Somewhat Unfavorable 9% | Very Unfavorable 33%
Have Not Heard of 10% | Don’t Know/Refused 4%
PA-10: Janelle Stelson (+4)
Very Favorable 16% | Somewhat Favorable 29% | Somewhat Unfavorable 16% | Very Unfavorable 25%
Have Not Heard of 10% | Don’t Know/Refused 4%
PA-10: Scott Perry (0)
Very Favorable 22% | Somewhat Favorable 23% | Somewhat Unfavorable 12% | Very Unfavorable 33%
Have Not Heard of 6% | Don’t Know/Refused 3%
One Issue Most Important in Deciding Your Vote
The Economy 25% | Inflation and cost of living 13% | Immigration 7% | Opposition to Trump 6%
Cost of Living
Strongly Approve 12% | Somewhat Approve 20% | Somewhat Disapprove 12% | Strongly Disapprove 54%
Immigration
Strongly Approve 37% | Somewhat Approve 11% | Somewhat Disapprove 8% | Strongly Disapprove 43%
What time of day do you tend to vote?
Election Day morning 38% | Election Day afternoon 24% | Election Day evening 21%
Before Election Day in person or by mail 14%
When did you decide who to vote for?
Before September 57% | At some point in September 19% | In early October 10%
In late October 10% | Have not decided 3%
How These Polls Were Conducted
Between Oct. 16 and 22, 2026, interviewers spoke with about 400 voters per district in Pennsylvania’s First, Seventh, Eighth and 10th Congressional Districts.
The polls were conducted by telephone using live interviewers. Overall, more than 99 percent of respondents were contacted on their cellphones.
Voters were selected for each survey from a list of voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For these polls, interviewers placed more than 229,000 calls to more than 82,000 voters.
To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the page, under “Composition of the Sample.”
The margin of sampling error among likely voters is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points when the four districts are analyzed together, and between 5.7 and 5.8 percentage points in each district. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error.
